DALLAS, TX -- August 10, 2026 -- Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX), highlighting that the company's second quarter 2026 results made its operating inflection visible. Despite a revenue miss, the company achieved positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA, driven by quarterly 45Z recognition, higher RNG production, and improved ethanol economics, which more than offset weaker India revenue due to OMC tender timing.
Revenue increased 20% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter to $62.7 million, falling short of the $68.6 million consensus. However, Stonegate's normalized EPS estimate of negative $0.11 outperformed the consensus estimate of negative $0.24. The underlying results were stronger than the revenue variance suggests: India's performance reflected tender timing, while both California businesses delivered higher volumes, stronger gross profit, and increased environmental-credit contribution.
Gross profit improved to $13.5 million from a loss of $3.4 million in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, a significant turnaround from negative $5.8 million. The quarter made the operating inflection more visible as quarterly 45Z recognition, higher RNG production, and improved ethanol economics more than offset the India revenue impact.
Dairy RNG remains the clearest growth driver. Sales volume increased 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu, and segment gross profit rose to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. Seven approved LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 CI are already improving credit economics, while six additional pathways nearing approval and two digesters expected to be commissioned in 3Q26 provide additional runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
The Keyes earnings bridge continues to advance. The MVR is targeted for operation by year-end 2026, and management estimates approximately $32 million of annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operating improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027. However, the balance sheet remains the primary thesis constraint, with $1.0 million of unrestricted cash, $415.9 million of total debt, and refinancing progress still important to translating operating improvement into durable free cash flow.
Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Its affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA), provides a full spectrum of investment banking, equity research, and capital raising for public and private companies.
