A new risk prediction tool accurately estimates the likelihood of developing dementia within ten years after a stroke, according to a preliminary study to be presented at the American Stroke Association’s International Stroke Conference 2026. The tool, developed by researchers at McMaster University and ICES, uses health records of nearly 50,000 adults hospitalized with stroke to stratify patients into five risk categories.
“Our previous research found that about 1 in 3 adults developed dementia after stroke over the long-term. We created a new tool that can stratify people into five different levels of dementia risk after stroke based on underlying health, stroke characteristics and risk factors,” said lead study author Raed A. Joundi, M.D., D.Phil., M.Sc., an assistant professor at McMaster University and a stroke neurologist at Hamilton Health Sciences.
Factors linked with higher risk included older age, pre-stroke disability, greater post-stroke disability, intracerebral hemorrhage (compared to ischemic stroke), diabetes, cognitive symptoms during hospitalization, and depression. The tool was derived from the Ontario Stroke Registry and validated in a separate sample, showing predicted rates close to observed rates.
Those in the highest risk category had a 50% probability of dementia over 10 years, compared to 5% in the lowest category. The goal is to help enroll high-risk patients in clinical trials focused on reducing dementia risk. “Dementia is a serious condition that commonly occurs in the aftermath of a stroke,” Joundi said. “We need to pay more attention to the development of dementia and how to prevent it.”
American Stroke Association volunteer expert Deborah A. Levine, M.D., M.P.H., noted that “dementia after a stroke is very difficult for patients and their loved ones, and there aren’t enough effective treatments to help. This well-done study provides a useful tool that could make research faster, so new treatments can get to stroke survivors sooner.” Study limitations include lack of data on dementia type and imaging scans.
The study is considered preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal. More information about stroke and brain health is available at stroke.org and the American Heart Association’s brain health initiative.
