As the final four months of the year begin, markets are turning "elephanty," according to the hosts of DH Unplugged. In Episode 816, titled "Strikes, Spikes, Hikes," Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak dissect a landscape marked by renewed U.S. bombing of Iran, a sharp spike in crude oil, and rising bond yields. The episode, published September 1, 2026, frames September's classic volatility against a backdrop of eroding institutional trust and a Federal Reserve caught between political pressure and a shaky labor market.
Crude oil has surged roughly 13% in two weeks to about $91.80, with diesel crack spreads flashing inflation warnings. This energy shock reverberates through the economy, threatening to reignite price pressures just as the Fed navigates a delicate path. The hosts point to specific corporate developments that underscore the market's bifurcation. Dell issued blowout guidance, projecting fiscal 2027 EPS near $25.50 versus $18.99 prior, on the back of a 40% data center share. Nvidia is reportedly pursuing a $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face, while the Jensen Huang and Sam Altman fallout adds a layer of intrigue. In contrast, Dick's Sporting Goods plunged roughly 30% as Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%, and Target faced a Halloween clown costume backlash, highlighting brand-management landmines in a social media age.
The hosts' skeptical tone sharpens when discussing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed nominee Kevin Warsh. "The administration is the boy who cried wolf right now," Horowitz said, adding that "Bessent has really gotten a little bit crazed trying to manipulate the markets." Dvorak connects these concerns to bond yields and the dollar, emphasizing that currencies, equities, and even private valuations rest on trust. "It's a series of very large trust factors," he argued, warning that tariff escalation echoing Smoot-Hawley would signal that America no longer believes it can compete.
The episode also delves into government equity stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals, and a lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement. Horowitz, who discloses a personal short position in Intel, questions why Washington gets discounted shares that retail investors never see. Dvorak contrasts the U.S. approach with China's state-owned enterprise model and highlights GLM 5.3 Flash from Chinese lab Z.ai, reportedly trained without a single Nvidia chip. The hosts also cover President Trump's Fox News threat that Iran will be "totally wiped out as a country" if it retaliates again, LEGO's 21% first-half revenue jump, and the baseball-card casino economy drawing scrutiny from Japanese regulators.
Looking ahead, Friday's August payrolls, ADP, JOLTS, and ISM data will provide crucial signals. As the hosts note, the market's direction in the coming months hinges on these data points and the broader trust factors they discuss. With oil spiking, bonds jittery, and consumer-facing companies facing backlash, September promises to be a volatile month.
